The same report states that « According to the National Survey on Living Conditions (ENCOVI by its acronym in Spanish), an annual survey of living conditions administered by three Venezuelan universities, there was a 31% increase in general mortality from 2017 to 2018. This would imply an increase of more than 40,000 deaths. », it was published in April 2019, so no doubt that many more died.
The US attacked because sanctions stopped having an effect. Extinguishing socialism is the objective, oil is to strengthen themselves, that's why they're also sanctioning Cuba or attacked the USSR. They also attacked Iraq/Iran/Syria/Lybia/.. primarily to weaken anti-Israel countries, more than to strengthen themselves through oil https://youtu.be/dSVGy8fhMYs .
No need to prove that it's not about drugs, but it's not only about oil(&gold), since it's also against socialism. And these accusations of dictatorship can only be thrown by those ignoring the venezuelan communes.
Venezuela was transforming itself into a federation of free communes, until now they still have the possibility to decide of the budget of their communes, and many do participate, the women appear to be the most active. Accusations of fraud are hard to dismiss, they're systematically used against our enemies despite many international observers, as well as https://x.com/i/status/1817560455646236974 , and you've shown what kind of venezuelan leader they want in place, thanks for reading.
Hm. I’d like to have some deeper analysis of what this idea of it ‘all being about oil’ actually means, if the economics of oil extraction and refininement aren’t good.
Zucman is claiming that pure oil $$ considerations driving recent events in Venezuela, against what appears (to me) to be more comprehensive and subtle consideration by folks like Ganz, who aren’t denying that ‘oil brain’ is playing a part (because Trump is stuck in the past), but also trying to understand the ideological and psychological and political motivations. And to question whether the oil $$$ framing even makes sense. Especially given the recent reporting that Oil companies are basically saying “??????” to the prospect of trying to fix Venezuelan infrastructure.
Your graph shows the collapse for US shareholders as happening 40 years ago, but you use that to explain an event that happened last week...? Seems rather weak to say the least. You could have strengthened your case a bit by pointing out that the CIA tried to coup Chavez in 2002 (and many times thereafter), but that still wouldn't explain the gap between the 1980s and 2000s.
The answer is actually quite simple: this is first and foremost an issue of power geopolitics and spheres of influence, second of energy geopolitics (which is much more than mere surplus), then everything else like the interests of US corporations. On energy geopolitics: the US could use Venezuela's reserves to further control the global market and reduce Russia's oil revenues as a way of applying additional leverage beyond current sanctions.
The article also doesn't mention that the US becoming energy independent has also been a huge game-changer when it comes to the relevance of oil reserves.
No doubt Trump and his cronies intend to profit from this, but that is very unlikely to be the main reason for what is unfolding.
Everything DJT does is 'transactional,' if there's nothing in it for him, he's not interested.
The truism "Follow the money" applies to everything DJT and the Military Industrial Congressional Complex do; it's modern-day colonialism from a waning hegemon that doesn't accept how close to collapse it is.
No petro dollar, no USA economy, hence the fight to the death, in never ending "Peak Oil Wars."
One example of much of a countries GDP ending up in the hands of (mostly) American companies is Ireland. 40% plus of Irish GDP never passes through the domestic Irish economy. In that case it is a tax haven not a site of physical resource extraction.
You said this "Donald Trump was 30 years old at the time. Today, he routinely denounces this episode as “theft” and barely conceals his ambition: to restore the brutally one-sided terms that prevailed between the 1920s and the 1960s". I think this is not really accurate because you can't really rely on the administration rhetoric. However. because I lived under the prolific oil industry in Venezuela, I think he would like to have the arrangement pre-chavez and you forgot the Billions owned by Venezuela due to the expropriation made by Chavez and successors which is part of an arbitration and the reason for maritime confiscation of vessels and CITGO.
Form 1976 all the way to perhaps 1993, the oil industry in Venezuela was dominated by many local national professionals that learned their trade in the US and through the interaction with other professionals overseas. PDVSA, and in this case Maraven, Corpoven, and Lagoven had a great training and capitation program, probably one of the best that continue right after Chavez. However, some of the elite oilman were associated as anti-chanvez, therefore the industry got filled with loyalist that had no experience and knowledge about the task at hand.
No long after, PDVSA began to engage in businesses not in their core competencies creating a background of corruption and waste. There were many reason why the industry decayed but it began with divestment in people and placing politics beyond profits.
That's what our media say about any disfavored foreign leader. But notice that people like Maduro and Putin have been re-elected in free and open elections.
Please be more precise and provide context: Pre-1970 the average looks to be about 7%. This is based on a tax rate that your own cited paper suggest is over 70%. And I suspect this doesn’t include royalties which would probably take it well over 80%. Since the oil industry was an enormous fraction of the economy if your numbers are correct national NET income from oil would have been over 20% of gdp and gross income probably 60-75%. Maybe that’s right, but allowing the companies that found and developed the oil to get 7% to provide a return on the billions invested and considerable risk taken seem like a great deal. Especially when you look and see how the country went to hell after adopting its confiscatory economic regime.
There are numerous issues with this analysis starting with mistakes made in the underlying paper:
1- relative profitability is judged by profits to wage ratio. By this standard the oil industry is judged to have exorbitant profits. It has always been true that the oil industry is one of the least people-intensive and most capital-intensive of industries. The paper ignores the reality that returns must be made on capital and the oil industry is not unusually profitable in that respect.
2-large shifts in taxation have occurred over the years among income taxes, production sharing and royalties. Only one of these (often the least important one in terms of government “take” is examined by either your or the cited paper’s analysis as far as I can tell.
I'm french but english is the new latin( for we(sterners))
Venezuelans were doing alright under Chávez : https://cepr.net/publications/venezuelan-economic-and-social-performance-under-hugo-chavez-in-graphs (Venezuelan Economic and Social Performance Under Hugo Chávez, in 12 Graphs), here is a longer version https://cepr.net/documents/publications/venezuela-2009-02.pdf , whose executive summary mentions that « Most of this growth has been in the non-oil sector of the economy »
The sanctions began after the 2016-2017 oil crisis, see fig.1 and 2 https://cepr.net/images/stories/reports/venezuela-sanctions-2019-04.pdf
The same report states that « According to the National Survey on Living Conditions (ENCOVI by its acronym in Spanish), an annual survey of living conditions administered by three Venezuelan universities, there was a 31% increase in general mortality from 2017 to 2018. This would imply an increase of more than 40,000 deaths. », it was published in April 2019, so no doubt that many more died.
The fig.1 in https://sanctionsandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/January-2022-Venezuela-Case_Rodriguez.pdf shows a better view of the impact of sanctions on Venezuela's oil production.
It is stated here(, https://www.ohchr.org/en/statements-and-speeches/2021/02/preliminary-findings-visit-bolivarian-republic-venezuela-special ,) that « The Government’s revenue was reported to shrink by 99% with the country currently living on 1% of its pre-sanctions income. », isn't that unbelievable ? Their foreign currency revenue also dropped.
However they survived so much, and in 2024 Venezuela (finally!) had the highest g.d.p. growth of South America https://www.cepal.org/sites/default/files/pr/files/tabla_nuevas_proyeccionespib_oct-2025.pdf
They also went back to a million barrels a day, very quickly rising https://tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/crude-oil-production
The US attacked because sanctions stopped having an effect. Extinguishing socialism is the objective, oil is to strengthen themselves, that's why they're also sanctioning Cuba or attacked the USSR. They also attacked Iraq/Iran/Syria/Lybia/.. primarily to weaken anti-Israel countries, more than to strengthen themselves through oil https://youtu.be/dSVGy8fhMYs .
No need to prove that it's not about drugs, but it's not only about oil(&gold), since it's also against socialism. And these accusations of dictatorship can only be thrown by those ignoring the venezuelan communes.
Venezuela was transforming itself into a federation of free communes, until now they still have the possibility to decide of the budget of their communes, and many do participate, the women appear to be the most active. Accusations of fraud are hard to dismiss, they're systematically used against our enemies despite many international observers, as well as https://x.com/i/status/1817560455646236974 , and you've shown what kind of venezuelan leader they want in place, thanks for reading.
Hm. I’d like to have some deeper analysis of what this idea of it ‘all being about oil’ actually means, if the economics of oil extraction and refininement aren’t good.
Zucman is claiming that pure oil $$ considerations driving recent events in Venezuela, against what appears (to me) to be more comprehensive and subtle consideration by folks like Ganz, who aren’t denying that ‘oil brain’ is playing a part (because Trump is stuck in the past), but also trying to understand the ideological and psychological and political motivations. And to question whether the oil $$$ framing even makes sense. Especially given the recent reporting that Oil companies are basically saying “??????” to the prospect of trying to fix Venezuelan infrastructure.
https://open.substack.com/pub/johnganz/p/crude-ideology
Your graph shows the collapse for US shareholders as happening 40 years ago, but you use that to explain an event that happened last week...? Seems rather weak to say the least. You could have strengthened your case a bit by pointing out that the CIA tried to coup Chavez in 2002 (and many times thereafter), but that still wouldn't explain the gap between the 1980s and 2000s.
The answer is actually quite simple: this is first and foremost an issue of power geopolitics and spheres of influence, second of energy geopolitics (which is much more than mere surplus), then everything else like the interests of US corporations. On energy geopolitics: the US could use Venezuela's reserves to further control the global market and reduce Russia's oil revenues as a way of applying additional leverage beyond current sanctions.
The article also doesn't mention that the US becoming energy independent has also been a huge game-changer when it comes to the relevance of oil reserves.
No doubt Trump and his cronies intend to profit from this, but that is very unlikely to be the main reason for what is unfolding.
The US empire is in the ascendance:
https://politicaleconomist.substack.com/p/the-us-empire-falling-or-in-ascendance
Everything DJT does is 'transactional,' if there's nothing in it for him, he's not interested.
The truism "Follow the money" applies to everything DJT and the Military Industrial Congressional Complex do; it's modern-day colonialism from a waning hegemon that doesn't accept how close to collapse it is.
No petro dollar, no USA economy, hence the fight to the death, in never ending "Peak Oil Wars."
https://kevinhester.live/2023/05/17/global-peak-oil-remains-an-existential-threat/
One example of much of a countries GDP ending up in the hands of (mostly) American companies is Ireland. 40% plus of Irish GDP never passes through the domestic Irish economy. In that case it is a tax haven not a site of physical resource extraction.
You said this "Donald Trump was 30 years old at the time. Today, he routinely denounces this episode as “theft” and barely conceals his ambition: to restore the brutally one-sided terms that prevailed between the 1920s and the 1960s". I think this is not really accurate because you can't really rely on the administration rhetoric. However. because I lived under the prolific oil industry in Venezuela, I think he would like to have the arrangement pre-chavez and you forgot the Billions owned by Venezuela due to the expropriation made by Chavez and successors which is part of an arbitration and the reason for maritime confiscation of vessels and CITGO.
Form 1976 all the way to perhaps 1993, the oil industry in Venezuela was dominated by many local national professionals that learned their trade in the US and through the interaction with other professionals overseas. PDVSA, and in this case Maraven, Corpoven, and Lagoven had a great training and capitation program, probably one of the best that continue right after Chavez. However, some of the elite oilman were associated as anti-chanvez, therefore the industry got filled with loyalist that had no experience and knowledge about the task at hand.
No long after, PDVSA began to engage in businesses not in their core competencies creating a background of corruption and waste. There were many reason why the industry decayed but it began with divestment in people and placing politics beyond profits.
Maduro was a brutal and corrupt autocrat?
That's what our media say about any disfavored foreign leader. But notice that people like Maduro and Putin have been re-elected in free and open elections.
Liking is not a reason to canonize anyone. Many people loved Hitler.
Your rational is simplistic and reductionist.
Please be more precise and provide context: Pre-1970 the average looks to be about 7%. This is based on a tax rate that your own cited paper suggest is over 70%. And I suspect this doesn’t include royalties which would probably take it well over 80%. Since the oil industry was an enormous fraction of the economy if your numbers are correct national NET income from oil would have been over 20% of gdp and gross income probably 60-75%. Maybe that’s right, but allowing the companies that found and developed the oil to get 7% to provide a return on the billions invested and considerable risk taken seem like a great deal. Especially when you look and see how the country went to hell after adopting its confiscatory economic regime.
There are numerous issues with this analysis starting with mistakes made in the underlying paper:
1- relative profitability is judged by profits to wage ratio. By this standard the oil industry is judged to have exorbitant profits. It has always been true that the oil industry is one of the least people-intensive and most capital-intensive of industries. The paper ignores the reality that returns must be made on capital and the oil industry is not unusually profitable in that respect.
2-large shifts in taxation have occurred over the years among income taxes, production sharing and royalties. Only one of these (often the least important one in terms of government “take” is examined by either your or the cited paper’s analysis as far as I can tell.